Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation

This paper examines whether the explanatory power of exchange rate models can be improved by allowing for cross-country asymmetries and non-linear effects of fundamentals. Both appear to be crucial. The samples include the USD versus pound and yen from 1982:10 to 2013:10, and automated model selection is conducted with indicator saturation. Several non-linear effects are significant at 1%. Further, many of the indicators present in the linear models are eliminated once allowing for non-linearities; suggesting some of the structural breaks found in previous work were an artifact of the misspecified linear functional form. These conclusions are robust to estimation using principal components.     

Cointegration as an explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle

Some economists suggest that the failure of exchange-rate models to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting out of sample can be attributed to failure to take into account cointegration when it is present. We attempt to find out if cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy by examining the relation between the stationarity and size of the forecasting error. Results based on three macroeconomic models of exchange rates do not provide strong support for the proposition that cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy. The simulation results show that while stationary errors tend to be smaller than non-stationary errors, this is not a universal rule. Irrespective of the presence or absence of cointegration, none of the three models can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting, which means that cointegration cannot solve the Meese–Rogoff puzzle.     

Extent of corporate governance disclosure by banks and finance companies listed on Nepal Stock Exchange

Corporate governance disclosure has seen renewed interest by researchers, policy makers, and regulating bodies internationally, but has remained only an emerging construct in Nepal. The primary purpose of this study was to assess the extent of mandatory corporate governance disclosure in Nepal. The secondary purpose was to examine the associations between the extent of disclosures and five firm-specific characteristics. The third purpose was to assess the significant determinants to explain variations of disclosures. The study's sampling frame consisted of 125 banking and finance companies listed on Nepal Stock Exchange. A sample size of 59 companies was randomly selected. On average, companies disclosed 91% of items in the mandatory category, 48% in the voluntary category, and 74% in total. A significant positive correlation existed between governance disclosures and firm characteristics of size, leverage, and foreign ownership. There was no significant relation between governance disclosure and listing age or profitability. With regards to determinants, bank size was a significant predictor of governance disclosure. Three regression models for total disclosures (DScore), mandatory disclosures [DScore (M)], and voluntary disclosures [DScore (V)] with three predictors of size, leverage, and foreign ownership were significant and explained 47%, 24%, and 54% variations respectively in total, mandatory, and voluntary corporate governance disclosures in Nepal. This research provides guidelines to policy makers and standard setters for developing future regulations and accounting policies.     

高校校园快递“校企双主体”运营模式研究

通过对高校校园快递现状及问题分析,构建快递服务中心"校企双主体"运营模式,从校企共建管理团队,共同制定规章制度,共同培养人才,互培共聘,共同经营管理,共享经营利润等方面阐述了"校企双主体"的内涵,对高校校企合作、人才培养、校园快递服务的提升具有指导性意义。     

白洋港铁水联运车船直取模式研究

白洋港作为长江三峡的核心内陆港,是工业输出港、翻坝转运港和西部出海港,主要服务于白洋工业园区,担当西北地区物流陆水联运的作用。为实现白洋港铁水联运的无缝衔接,在阐述白洋港铁水联运模式及作业流程的基础上,针对白洋港既有铁水联运模式存在的问题,提出白洋港铁水联运车船直取模式,从车船直取模式设施布局及作业流程进行分析,达到压缩无效作业时间、提高白洋港铁水联运效率、释放技术站作业能力等效果,实现白洋港铁水联运效率的提升。     

The role of the Securities and Exchange Commission in a developing economy: Implications for IFRS

Due to the widespread adoption of IFRSs throughout the world and little research on IFRS implementation in developing countries, this study investigates the role of the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding IFRS implementation in a developing country. Adopting a mixed methodology (39 interviews and 1647 enforcement documents); the findings have raised concerns as to the adequacy of enforcement mechanisms in implementing IFRSs in Bangladesh. More specifically, only 2.6% of enforcement actions were issued over the period of 1998 to 2010. Political connectedness is the major contributing factor for uneven enforcement activities in Bangladesh. The study also finds that inconsistencies with accounting regulatory framework (Companies Act, BSEC ordinances and IFRSs), multiple regulators, and donor agencies' influence impede the effective implementation of IFRSs. The study also provides policy implications for local and national policy makers namely, IASB, the World Bank and the IMF to rethink about the regulation of IFRSs in developing countries.     

论儿童阶段教师权威地位的重要性——对“师生平等”的反思

“平等”概念进入教育领域后，为我们解决了一些困扰已久的师生关系问题。但这种看似民主的师生平等观点，是否也夹杂着整个社会的权威退化值得探讨。在权威普遍丧失的今天，教育领域中万万不能丧失权威的概念，师生平等并不是师生关系最高标准，它甚至有弱化教师权威的倾向。如何建立起师生关系的最佳模式，如何帮助教师重塑在学生心目中应有的权威地位，阿伦特的权威观念也许可以作为一个指引。     

“安倍经济学”与“李克强经济学”孰优孰劣

在外界看来,"安倍经济学"喜迎东风,"李究竟哪一种发展模式能够真正实现经济持续健康发展的神话?然而,哪一种发展模式更加适应本国国情,真正能实现国富民强?     

Asymmetric cointegration with threshold adjustment model of exchange rates and the trade balance in Turkey

This paper aims to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates in Turkey using the asymmetric error correction model with threshold cointegration. The results provide new evidence for the asymmetric long-run relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates. Besides, deviations from the long-run equilibrium due to a relative increase in real exchange rates have a lower speed of adjustment in comparison to the deviations caused by a relative decrease in real exchange rates.     

Sustainability of macroeconomic policies in selected MENA countries: Post financial and debt crises

In the wake of the recent financial and debt crises, the conduct of macroeconomic policies in the emerging MENA economies has recently become critical in determining those countries future economic situation, due to the accumulation since the early 1990s of a sizable level of external debt, and the pursuit by some countries of a fixed exchange rate regime. Using time series econometric models, this study assesses the sustainability of macroeconomic policies in a selected sample of 4 MENA countries. The empirical results point to sustainable fiscal and exchange rate policies in Tunisia and Morocco, and unsustainable external debt and exchange rate policies in Egypt and Jordan. While Egypt has recently moved to a flexible exchange rate regime, if Jordan still opts for maintaining a fixed exchange rate arrangement, it will have to implement crisis-prevention measures, namely by exercising fiscal discipline, and managing properly its external debt and foreign reserves.